Data: Extreme weather tops 10-year global risks

Rasmus Johansson Published: Read: 3 min
A powerful tornado over the ocean during a dramatic sunset, capturing the storm's intensity and beauty.
© Photo: Johannes Plenio / Pexels

A new perspective from the Carbon Literacy Project argues that climate action hasn’t slipped off the public agenda, even as politics feel polarised. The World Economic Forum’s latest Global Risks Report 2025 ranks extreme weather as the top 10-year risk and urges renewed collaboration. Recent events like Hurricane Melissa’s devastation across Jamaica, Haiti and Cuba underline how warmer seas are supercharging storms, with at least 50 deaths reported, according to Reuters. In the UK, the government’s Climate Change Risk Assessment 2022 warns damages will reach at least 1% of GDP by the mid-2040s, while the OBR projects debt could reach roughly 270–340% of GDP in the 2070s if climate damages mount, with some scenarios “around 290%” (OBR 2024). Research from Climate Outreach shows messages linking climate to local health, safety and nature significantly lift support.

“Polarisation” is today’s default headline, but the evidence suggests climate action still resonates widely. In its overview of long- and short-term threats, the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2025 finds environmental risks dominate the 10-year horizon, with extreme weather ranked #1 and biodiversity loss close behind. The authors warn that, in a fragmenting world, there is “no option other than to find avenues for dialogue and collaboration,” a call that aligns with the Carbon Literacy Project’s own framing in Pitching Climate Action in a Seemingly Divisive World.

The headlines are not abstract. Hurricane Melissa tore through the Caribbean this week, killing at least 50 people and leaving widespread destruction across Jamaica and deadly floods in Haiti, before weakening as it moved north, according to Reuters and The Guardian. Scientists have long noted that warmer ocean waters add energy to tropical cyclones, increasing the risk of intense storms.

For the UK, delaying action carries mounting economic risk. The government’s Climate Change Risk Assessment 2022 says climate damages will be at least 1% of GDP by 2045 (roughly tens of billions of pounds annually in today’s economy), while the Office for Budget Responsibility’s recent assessments show public debt could surge toward 270–340% of GDP by the 2070s as climate damages bite, with one lower-impact projection “around 290%” (OBR 2024; a 2025 update also highlights larger damage estimates under ~3°C warming: Reuters). The direction is clear: acting early is cheaper than picking up the pieces later.

Despite noisy headlines about “anti-ESG,” many firms are not retreating. An analysis in Harvard Business Review reports that only a small minority have rolled back climate commitments, while most maintained or strengthened them — often with less publicity (HBR). That quiet continuity mirrors what many communities say they want: practical solutions with visible, local benefits.

How we talk about climate policy matters. New Britain Talks Climate & Nature findings from Climate Outreach show that plain-English messages connecting climate to everyday benefits markedly raise support. For example, a technical “net-zero by 2045” line draws about half in favour, but describing cleaner air, warmer homes, safer streets and protected local nature lifts positive responses into the high 60s–70s, depending on wording (Key findings; Q&A). The lesson is straightforward: focus on health, comfort, savings and pride of place — then link those back to emissions cuts.

With COP30 gathering in Belém on 6–21 November, the moment calls for credible action that feels relevant at street level as well as on the world stage (UN COP30). That means investing in home upgrades, clean transport and nature restoration; helping households and small businesses participate; and telling the story in language that people recognise from their own lives. The will is there — the task now is to make it personal, practical and fair.