A sweeping new review argues that carbon offsets have largely failed to slow global warming and should no longer be used as a substitute for cutting emissions at the source. Published in the Annual Review of Environment and Resources, the paper assembles 25 years of evidence and finds that core problems—non-additional projects, over-credited baselines, leakage, impermanence and double counting—persist across major offset types Are Carbon Offsets Fixable?. Coverage of the findings has rippled across climate media in recent days, including a concise roundup by CarbonCredits.com study summary.

Evidence of a quality gap is mounting. A 2024 meta-analysis in Nature Communications concluded that less than 16% of examined credits reflect real, additional emission reductions, with many credits originating from project types at high risk of over-crediting Nature Communications study. Specific categories have drawn scrutiny: researchers found that popular cookstove credits often overstated climate benefits by about an order of magnitude Berkeley explainer, while analyses of forest programs show undercapitalized buffers and reversal risks from wildfire and drought California buffer pool analysis. Against this backdrop, atmospheric CO₂ keeps rising—Mauna Loa’s monthly average peaked at 426.9 ppm in May 2024—underscoring the limited atmospheric impact of current offsetting schemes NOAA.

Markets have reacted. The voluntary carbon market’s transaction value fell 61% in 2023 to $723 million as buyers pulled back from low-quality credits Ecosystem Marketplace 2024. Some corporates have shifted strategy: Microsoft is prioritizing durable carbon removal and published detailed quality criteria for CDR purchases Microsoft CDR criteria, while Delta reports it has not purchased voluntary offsets for airline operations since 2023, focusing instead on sustainable aviation fuel and operational cuts Delta 2023 ESG.

Standard-setters are pushing reforms rather than a retreat. The Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market has declared five major programs CCP-eligible—covering about 98% of the market by 2023 retirements—and is now approving specific methodologies for its high-integrity label ICVCM announcement ICVCM approvals update. Gold Standard and partner initiatives have also promoted “contribution”-style claims to avoid overstated “offsetting” narratives Gold Standard claims guidelines. Negotiators continue to refine how voluntary and compliance markets interact under the Paris Agreement’s Article 6 framework ahead of COP30 in Belém, with supervisory bodies due to report progress in 2025 TNC COP29/30 brief.

The review’s authors argue that credible pathways center on verified removals and direct decarbonization. Technology-based removals are still expensive—today typically hundreds to around a thousand dollars per ton—but companies like Climeworks target net-removal costs of $400–$600/t by 2030 as newer systems scale Climeworks cost roadmap. That price trajectory is far from guaranteed, yet it reflects a wider shift from cheap avoidance credits toward scarcer, higher-integrity tonnage. Whether that shift restores trust will depend on strict accounting, independent verification, and corporate claims that no longer treat offsets as a license to delay real cuts.

Bottom line: the literature now strongly suggests that most offsets issued to date have not cleaned the atmosphere as advertised. Reforms led by ICVCM and evolving corporate procurement standards could reshape a smaller, more credible market—but only if offsets complement, rather than replace, rapid emissions reductions.