Tropical Storm Dolly Forms: A Twist for Drought-Hit Caribbean?
Tropical Storm Dolly has formed in the Atlantic, offering a complex outlook for the drought-stricken Caribbean. While the system is expected to weaken, its remnants could bring much-needed rain to islands like Puerto Rico, which is facing extreme drought and water shut-offs. However, heavy downpours on dry, compacted land also raise concerns about flash flooding. This unexpected blend of potential relief and new hazards highlights the delicate balance communities face amid changing climate patterns.
Tropical Storm Dolly recently formed in the tropical Atlantic. Forecasters from the National Hurricane Center noted its well-defined circulation and 40 mph winds. Dolly is moving quickly west-northwest, but strong wind shear and dry air are expected to weaken it significantly. The system will likely become an open tropical wave before reaching the northeastern Caribbean, a best-case scenario given the region's severe conditions.
The northeastern Caribbean, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, is grappling with extreme drought. This is partly due to a strong El Niño and persistent wind shear that has limited rainfall throughout the summer. San Juan, Puerto Rico, experienced its driest and second-hottest July on record, leading to rotating 48-hour water shut-offs affecting 180,000 customers. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, conditions were poised to worsen further.
While Dolly’s remnants are not expected to end the drought, they could bring 1-4 inches of rain to parts of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola early next week. This rainfall should help prevent the drought from intensifying further, offering a temporary reprieve. However, the dry, hard ground means that heavy rain, especially from successive thunderstorms, could quickly lead to flash flooding, particularly in mountainous areas.
The Atlantic hurricane season has been unusually quiet, with Dolly forming about 12 days behind the average for the fourth named storm. Despite this quiet period, the intensifying El Niño is projected to worsen drought across the Caribbean from this autumn into early 2027 and bring record heat from March through May. Experts from the University of the West Indies Climate Studies Group Mona (UWI CSGM) and the Caribbean Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH) issued a joint news release warning of an “emerging climate disaster” combining heat, drought, and marine extremes, emphasizing the urgent need for serious preparation now.