Tropical Storm Dolly: Will the Dry Caribbean Get Needed Rain?
Tropical Storm Dolly has just formed in the Atlantic, heading swiftly west towards the Caribbean. While the Atlantic hurricane season has been unusually quiet, Dolly's arrival comes as parts of the Caribbean, especially Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, grapple with extreme drought and severe water shortages. Experts are watching closely to see if the storm will bring much-needed relief or pose new challenges to communities already facing a worsening climate crisis. This event highlights the complex and urgent environmental realities driven by changing weather patterns.
The National Hurricane Center identified Dolly as having sustained winds of 40 mph. It's currently moving quickly westward. While the name Dolly might make you think of the famous singer who recently passed, it's just a coincidence – this name has been used for Atlantic storms since 1996. The current forecast suggests Dolly will mostly continue on a west-northwest path for the next few days.
Dolly has a small window to get stronger, mainly today. After that, it's expected to weaken, likely becoming a less organized system before it even reaches the northeast Caribbean over the weekend. This is actually good news for places like Puerto Rico, which are currently battling severe drought.
The region, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, is experiencing extreme drought conditions. San Juan, for example, recently recorded its driest July on record, coupled with its second hottest. This has led to serious water shortages, with water cuts affecting thousands of residents. The severe lack of rain, partly due to a strong El Niño event, has left the ground extremely dry and compacted, as seen in the U.S. Drought Monitor's weekly summary.
When Dolly's remnants arrive early next week, they could bring one to four inches of rain to parts of the Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. While any rain is welcome, it won't be enough to fully end the widespread drought. In fact, prolonged drought is expected to worsen from this fall into early 2027, with potential record high temperatures next spring, due to the intensifying El Niño. This underlines a growing climate emergency, where heat, drought, and marine issues are combining to create a slow-moving disaster that demands our urgent attention and preparation, as warned in a joint statement from Caribbean climate experts.